Robert Silk
Southwest. Alaska. Spirit. Frontier. Delta. JetBlue.
Each of these airlines has implemented, announced or teased about substantial changes to their merchandising model or aircraft interiors just since May.
In the end, this sharp state of flux among U.S. carriers might mean higher prices and even less comfort for economy flyers. But the price gap between premium seats and economy fares could go down.
Southwest's changes will likely be the most impactful. The carrier intends to convert approximately one-third of its seats to extra legroom while not reducing total seat counts on aircraft. That's good news for some deeper-pocketed travelers, but standard coach flyers would get the squeeze, literally, in the form of less legroom.
Alaska has similar plans. As part of an initiative to retrofit 218 narrowbody planes, Alaska's space between economy seat rows will be diminished from 31 inches to 30 inches to make room for additional first-class and extra-legroom seats.
Meanwhile, Spirit and Frontier have each rejiggered their merchandising models. Both carriers still sell no-frills fares. But the longtime discounting stalwarts have put new emphasis on reconstituted bundle sets, which are now displayed from the beginning of the booking path.
Of special interest among the changes that have only been hinted at could be Delta's consideration of unbundling forward-cabin offerings, a potential first among U.S. carriers. We don't know yet what this would look like; Delta plans to wait until November before providing more information. But some other global carriers already charge differentiated prices for various business-class seats.
As for JetBlue, the carrier has said it will announce enhancements to its suite of premium products later this year. Speculation has focused on a potential domestic first-class cabin, which would complement the Mint business-class cabins JetBlue offers on many longer routes. If it does add first-class seats, JetBlue could also decide to reduce its industry-leading coach legroom, following a similar path to Alaska, and likely Southwest.
Many of these changes speak to the turbulence being experienced by discounters across the U.S. airline industry. Spirit, Frontier and JetBlue are searching -- flailing away might be a better term for Spirit and Frontier -- for a path toward returned profitability. Southwest's management is striving to bring profits back to historical levels while also staving off a planned proxy fight from the activist firm Elliott Investment Management.
The changes also speak to the increasing preference that well-heeled flyers have shown in the post-pandemic period for premium seat products.
For consumers writ large, one likely outcome of these changes is generally higher coach prices as the overall percentage of economy seats in the market goes down and as the biggest discounters place more emphasis on driving up pricing yields.
Another outcome will be even less-comfortable seating for economy flyers as legroom at Alaska, Southwest and potentially JetBlue contracts to make way for more extra-space seats.
But as Southwest gradually floods the market with extra-legroom seats and other airlines also add to their premium inventory, supply-and-demand dynamics in the front of aircraft could reach an inflection point. This will especially be the case if airline consumer preferences eventually revert toward the prepandemic norm, a distinct possibility in the ever-changing marketplace.
It was only a few years ago that more airline customers were enticed to sample the front of the plane by cheap pandemic-time prices.
Such bargains have gone away for now. But circumstances might be building for their eventual return.